International tourism and trade in Mexico: A Granger causality test (2012- 2020)

Laura Sour

doi:10.31893/multiscience.2024229

Keywords:

industrial policy

international tourism arrivals

balance of trade

cointegration

Mexico

Abstract

Limited information is available on the factors that impact the flow of international tourists to Mexico, a top global tourist destination in the 21st century. Our study utilizes the Granger causality test in vector autoregressive (VAR) models to examine the potential causal relationship between international trade and international tourism flows with Mexico’s key travel partners from 2012 to 2020. Analysis of data from trade balance and foreign tourist visits to Mexico reveals a Granger causality linking trade balance growth to increased international tourist arrivals from the United States, Argentina, and Italy. Conversely, in the case of Canada, growth in tourist visits influences the trade balance between the two countries. No significant Granger-causality was found for the United Kingdom, Colombia, Spain, Brazil, France, and Germany. These results have important implications for the development of public tourism policies focused on addressing challenges related to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
References
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2. Altés, C. (2008). Turismo y Desarrollo en México. Sectoral note, Inter-American Development Bank, Working Paper CSI-I, 17.
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6. Brida, J. G., and Risso, W. (2009). Tourism as a factor of long-run economic growth: An empirical analysis for Chile. European Journal of Tourism Research, 2(2), 178-185.
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12. Faber, B., and Gaubert, C. (2019). Tourism and economic development: Evidence from Mexico’s coastline. American Economic Review, 109(6), 2245-2293.
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14. Gómez L, C. S., and Barrón A., K. S. (2019). Impacts of tourism and the generation of employment in Mexico. Journal of Tourism Analysis: Revista de Análisis Turístico, Vol. 26 No. 2, pp. 94-114. https://doi.org/10.1108/JTA-10-2018-0029
15. Hall, C. M. (2021). Constructing sustainable tourism development: The 2030 agenda and the managerial ecology of sustainable tourism. In Activating Critical Thinking to Advance the Sustainable Development Goals in Tourism Systems (pp. 198-214). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003140542-12
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22. Sánchez-Carrera, E. J., Brida, J. G., and Risso, W. A. (2008). Tourism's impact on long-run Mexican economic growth. Economics Bulletin, 23(21), 1-8.
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26. SIE, Banco de México [Central Bank of Mexico]. (2020). Balanza comercial por países, Miles de dólares. Sistema de Información Económica [Balance of trade by country, Thousands of dollars. Economic Information System]. Retrieved on December 7th, 2020. Available in https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=1andacción=consultarCuadroAn aliticoandidCuadro=CA8andlocale=es
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28. Tang, C. F., and Tan, E. C. (2013). How stable is the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? Evidence from disaggregated tourism markets.Tourism Management, 37, 52-57.
29. Tang, C. F., and Tan, E. C. (2015b). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia: Evidence based upon regime shift cointegration and time-varying Granger causality techniques. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 20(sup1), 1430-1450.
30. UNWTO (2023) Economic data relevant for tourism. Available at: https://www.unwto.org/unwto-world-tourism-barometer-data [Accessed 13 December, 2023].
31. Wang, L., Zhang, H., and Li, W. (2012). Analysis of causality between tourism and economic growth based on computational econometrics. Journal of Computers, 7(9), 2152-2159.
32. Wilson, T. (2008a). Economic and social impacts of tourism in Mexico. Latin American perspectives, 35(3), 37-52. Retrieved on January 24th, 2021. Available in http://www.jstor.org/stable/27648096
33. Wilson, T. (2008b). Introduction: The impacts of tourism in Latin America. Latin American perspectives, 35(3), 3-20. Retrieved on March 4th, 2021. Available in http://www.jstor.org/stable/27648094
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

How to cite

Sour, L. (2024). International tourism and trade in Mexico: A Granger causality test (2012- 2020). Multidisciplinary Science Journal, 6(11), 2024229. https://doi.org/10.31893/multiscience.2024229

[1] Akinboade, O. A., and Braimoh, L. A. (2010). International tourism and economic development in South Africa: A Granger causality test. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(2), 149-163.

[2] Altés, C. (2008). Turismo y Desarrollo en México. Sectoral note, Inter-American Development Bank, Working Paper CSI-I, 17.

[3] Ardahaey, F. T. (2011). Economic impacts of tourism industry. International Journal of Business and Management, 6(8), 206-215.

[4] Aslan, A. (2014). Tourism development and economic growth in the Mediterranean countries: Evidence from panel Granger causality tests. Current issues in Tourism, 17(4), 363-372.

[5] Bilen, M., Yilanci, V., and Eryüzlü, H. (2017). Tourism development and economic growth: a panel Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(1), 27-32.

[6] Brida, J. G., and Risso, W. (2009). Tourism as a factor of long-run economic growth: An empirical analysis for Chile. European Journal of Tourism Research, 2(2), 178-185.

[7] Brooks, C. (2019). Introductory econometrics for finance. Cambridge University Press.

[8] Caballero, J., Quieti, M., and Maetz, M. (2000). Las negociaciones comerciales multilaterales sobre la agricultura: Manual de referencia. La organización de las naciones unidas para la alimentación y la agricultura (FAO). Available in http://www.fao.org/3/x7352s/x7352s02.htm

[9] Chen, M. H., Lin, C. P., Cheng, M. C., and Yuan, J. H. (2015). Examining the Korean inbound tourism market cycle: A Markov regime-switching model. Tourism Analysis, 20(5), 551-557.

[10] Datatur (2020b). Visitantes internacionales por vía aérea por principal nacionalidad. Secretaría de turismo. [International visitors by air, by main nationality. Ministry of Tourism]. Retrieved on December 7th, 2020. Available in https://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/SitePages/Visitantes%20por%20 Nacionalidad.aspx

[11] Datatur. (2020a). Resultados de la Actividad Turística Diciembre 2020. [Results of the Touristic Activity December 2020]. Retrieved on March 10th, 2021. Available in https://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/RAT/RAT-2020-12(ES).pdf

[12] Faber, B., and Gaubert, C. (2019). Tourism and economic development: Evidence from Mexico’s coastline. American Economic Review, 109(6), 2245-2293.

[13] Fry, D., Saayman, A., and Saayman, M. (2010). The relationship between tourism and trade in South Africa. South African Journal of Economics, 78(3), 287-306.

[14] Gómez L, C. S., and Barrón A., K. S. (2019). Impacts of tourism and the generation of employment in Mexico. Journal of Tourism Analysis: Revista de Análisis Turístico, Vol. 26 No. 2, pp. 94-114. https://doi.org/10.1108/JTA-10-2018-0029

[15] Hall, C. M. (2021). Constructing sustainable tourism development: The 2030 agenda and the managerial ecology of sustainable tourism. In Activating Critical Thinking to Advance the Sustainable Development Goals in Tourism Systems (pp. 198-214). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003140542-12

[16] INEGI - Instituto Nacional De Estadística y Geografía [National Institute of Statistics and Geography]. (2019). Turismo [Tourism]. Available in https://www.inegi.org.mx/temas/turismosat/

[17] Khan, H., Toh, R. S., and Chua, L. (2005). Tourism and trade: Cointegration and Granger causality tests. Journal of Travel Research, 44(2), 171-176.

[18] Kulendran, N., and Wilson, K. (2000). Is there a relationship between international trade and international travel?. Applied economics, 32(8), 1001-1009.

[19] Lionetti, S., and González, O. (2012). On the relationship between tourism and growth in Latin America. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 12(1), 15-24.

[20] Londoño, W. (2005). Modelos de ecuaciones múltiples modelos var y cointegración [Multiple Equation Models Var Models and Cointegration Models] (Doctoral dissertation, Universidad EAFIT).

[21] Luque, B. (2016). Correlación no implica causalidad. Investigación y Ciencia, 478, 88-90.

[22] Sánchez-Carrera, E. J., Brida, J. G., and Risso, W. A. (2008). Tourism's impact on long-run Mexican economic growth. Economics Bulletin, 23(21), 1-8.

[23] Santana-Gallego, M., Ledesma Rodríguez, F., and Pérez Rodríguez, J. V. (2010). On the relationship between tourism and trade. In Fabio Cerina, Anil Markandya and Michael McAleer (Eds.) Economics of Sustainable Tourism. New York : Routledge.

[24] Sequeira, T. N., and Maçãs-Nunes, P. (2008). Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach. Applied Economics, 40(18), 2431-2441.

[25] Shan, J., and Wilson, K. (2001). Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, 8(4), 279-283.

[26] SIE, Banco de México [Central Bank of Mexico]. (2020). Balanza comercial por países, Miles de dólares. Sistema de Información Económica [Balance of trade by country, Thousands of dollars. Economic Information System]. Retrieved on December 7th, 2020. Available in https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=1andacción=consultarCuadroAn aliticoandidCuadro=CA8andlocale=es

[27] Sokhanvar, A., Çiftçioğlu, S., and Javid, E. (2018). Another look at tourism-economic development nexus. Tourism Management Perspectives, 26, 97-106.

[28] Tang, C. F., and Tan, E. C. (2013). How stable is the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? Evidence from disaggregated tourism markets.Tourism Management, 37, 52-57.

[29] Tang, C. F., and Tan, E. C. (2015b). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia: Evidence based upon regime shift cointegration and time-varying Granger causality techniques. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 20(sup1), 1430-1450.

[30] UNWTO (2023) Economic data relevant for tourism. Available at: https://www.unwto.org/unwto-world-tourism-barometer-data [Accessed 13 December, 2023].

[31] Wang, L., Zhang, H., and Li, W. (2012). Analysis of causality between tourism and economic growth based on computational econometrics. Journal of Computers, 7(9), 2152-2159.

[32] Wilson, T. (2008a). Economic and social impacts of tourism in Mexico. Latin American perspectives, 35(3), 37-52. Retrieved on January 24th, 2021. Available in http://www.jstor.org/stable/27648096

[33] Wilson, T. (2008b). Introduction: The impacts of tourism in Latin America. Latin American perspectives, 35(3), 3-20. Retrieved on March 4th, 2021. Available in http://www.jstor.org/stable/27648094

[34] World Trade Organization (2023) Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Update October 2023. Available in: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/gtos_updt_oct23_e.pdf [Accessed 14 December 2023].

[35] Yu-Chi, S. (2018). Revisiting the tourism-led growth hypothesis in a dual model using Mwald Granger causality analysis. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(8), 1102.

Abstract

References

How to cite