Analyzing crop production statistics of the Philippines using the newcomb-benford law

Samuel John Estenor Parreño

doi:10.31893/multiscience.2024079

Keywords:

Abstract

The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in the Philippines, contributing significantly to its food security and economic growth. However, the sector faces various challenges that hinder its productivity and growth. To address these challenges and promote sustainable agricultural practices, accurate and reliable crop production statistics are essential for informed decision-making and resource allocation. The Newcomb-Benford Law (NBL) provides a statistical distribution pattern for leading digits in numerical datasets, offering insights into data reliability. In this research study, we applied the NBL to analyze crop production statistics for major crops (rice, corn, coconut, sugarcane, banana, cassava, and pineapple) in the Philippines. We assessed the conformity of the datasets to NBL expectations and identified significant deviations, indicating potential data accuracy issues, collection method discrepancies, or reporting irregularities. Although these deviations do not conclusively suggest fraud, they underscore the need for meticulous data validation. The first two-digit test further strengthened the findings, providing a comprehensive understanding of dataset conformity. Transparent data collection and validation processes are crucial for trustworthy agricultural statistics, supporting effective policy-making and resource allocation. Future research should investigate the root causes of the deviations, explore data processing errors, and implement stringent data validation procedures. Additionally, expanding the analysis to include other crops and conducting comparative studies between regions and time periods would enhance data integrity and contribute to sustainable agricultural practices and food security in the Philippines.
References
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21. Nigrini, M. J. (2012). Benford's Law: Applications for forensic accounting, auditing, and fraud detection (586). John Wiley & Sons.
22. Pandit, P., Pandey, R., Singha, K., Shrivastava, S., Gupta, V., & Jose, S. (2020). Pineapple leaf fibre: cultivation and production. Pineapple Leaf Fibers: Processing, Properties and Applications, 1-20.
23. Parreño , S. . (2023). Assessing the quality of dengue data in the Philippines using Newcomb-Benford law. Sapienza: International Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 4(3), e23039. https://doi.org/10.51798/sijis.v4i3.662
24. Qin, L., Han, S., Xing, L., Zhang, J., Zhang, J., Yang, R., & Wu, J. (2019, August). Application Research of Benford’s Law in Testing Agrometeorological Data. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 310(5), 052030. IOP Publishing.
25. Tenkorang, F. (2022). Manipulation in Agricultural Commodities Futures Market: Application of Benford’s Law.
26. Tošić, A., & Vičič, J. (2021). Use of Benford's law on academic publishing networks. Journal of Informetrics, 15(3), 101163.
27. Vičič, J., & Tošić, A. (2022). Application of Benford’s law on cryptocurrencies. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research, 17(1), 313-326.
28. Yamagishi, K., Gantalao, C., & Ocampo, L. (2021). The future of farm tourism in the Philippines: challenges, strategies and insights. Journal of Tourism futures.
29. Yanik, R., & Samanci, T. H. (2013). Benford’s Law and a Practical Implementation in Public Sector About its Application to Accounting Data. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(1), 335-348.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

How to cite

Parreño, S. J. E. (2023). Analyzing crop production statistics of the Philippines using the newcomb-benford law. Multidisciplinary Science Journal, 6(6), 2024079. https://doi.org/10.31893/multiscience.2024079

[1] Apuke, O. D. (2017). Quantitative research methods: A synopsis approach. Kuwait Chapter of Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, 33(5471), 1-8.

[2] Balashov, V. S., Yan, Y., & Zhu, X. (2021). Using the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development. Scientific reports, 11(1), 22914.

[3] Benford, F. (1938). The law of anomalous numbers. Proc Am Philos Soc, (78), 551-572.

[4] Briones, R. M. (2021). Philippine agriculture: Current state, challenges, and ways forward.

[5] Eckhartt, G. M., & Ruxton, G. D. (2023). Investigating and preventing scientific misconduct using Benford’s Law. Research Integrity and Peer Review, 8(1), 1-10.

[6] Fewster, R. M. (2009). A simple explanation of Benford's Law. The American Statistician, 63(1), 26-32.

[7] Gauvrit, N. G., Houillon, J. C., & Delahaye, J. P. (2017). Generalized Benford’s Law as a lie detector. Advances in cognitive psychology, 13(2), 121.

[8] Geyer, C. L., & Williamson, P. P. (2004). Detecting fraud in data sets using Benford's law. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 33(1), 229-246.

[9] Go, A. W., & Conag, A. T. (2019). Utilizing sugarcane leaves/straws as source of bioenergy in the Philippines: A case in the Visayas Region. Renewable energy, 132, 1230-1237.

[10] Goh, C. (2020). Applying visual analytics to fraud detection using Benford's law. Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance, 31(4), 202-208.

[11] Hanci, F. (2022). Application of Benford’s law in agricultural production statistics. Journal of the National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka, 50(2), 387-393.

[12] Jianu, I., & Jianu, I. (2021). Reliability of financial information from the perspective of Benford’s law. Entropy, 23(5), 557.

[13] Koch, C., & Okamura, K. (2020). Benford’s law and COVID-19 reporting. Economics letters, 196, 109573.

[14] Kraus, C., & Valverde, R. (2014). A data warehouse design for the detection of fraud in the supply chain by using the benford’s law. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 11(9), 1507-1518.

[15] Landicho, D., & Balendres, M. A. (2022). Possible incursion of cassava virus diseases: risks and potential threats to the Philippine cassava industry. Archives of Phytopathology and Plant Protection, 55(15), 1725-1749.

[16] Levičar, S. (2020). Potential of Benford's law and machine learning based verification in agricultural logistics. In XIV. International Conference on Logistics in Agriculture, (p. 4). 63 (082)(0.034. 2)

[17] Li, F., Han, S., Zhang, H., Ding, J., Zhang, J., & Wu, J. (2019, February). Application of Benford’s law in Data Analysis. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1168(3), 032133. IOP Publishing.

[18] Madahali, L., & Hall, M. (2020, June). Application of the Benford’s law to Social bots and Information Operations activities. In 2020 International Conference on Cyber Situational Awareness, Data Analytics and Assessment (CyberSA) (pp. 1-8). IEEE.

[19] Manrique-Hernández, E. F., Fernández-Niño, J. A., & Idrovo, A. J. (2017). Global performance of epidemiologic surveillance of Zika virus: rapid assessment of an ongoing epidemic. Public Health, 143, 14-16.

[20] Newcomb, S. (1881). Note on the frequency of use of the different digits in natural numbers. Am J Math, 4: 39.

[21] Nigrini, M. J. (2012). Benford's Law: Applications for forensic accounting, auditing, and fraud detection (586). John Wiley & Sons.

[22] Pandit, P., Pandey, R., Singha, K., Shrivastava, S., Gupta, V., & Jose, S. (2020). Pineapple leaf fibre: cultivation and production. Pineapple Leaf Fibers: Processing, Properties and Applications, 1-20.

[23] Parreño , S. . (2023). Assessing the quality of dengue data in the Philippines using Newcomb-Benford law. Sapienza: International Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 4(3), e23039. https://doi.org/10.51798/sijis.v4i3.662

[24] Qin, L., Han, S., Xing, L., Zhang, J., Zhang, J., Yang, R., & Wu, J. (2019, August). Application Research of Benford’s Law in Testing Agrometeorological Data. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 310(5), 052030. IOP Publishing.

[25] Tenkorang, F. (2022). Manipulation in Agricultural Commodities Futures Market: Application of Benford’s Law.

[26] Tošić, A., & Vičič, J. (2021). Use of Benford's law on academic publishing networks. Journal of Informetrics, 15(3), 101163.

[27] Vičič, J., & Tošić, A. (2022). Application of Benford’s law on cryptocurrencies. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research, 17(1), 313-326.

[28] Yamagishi, K., Gantalao, C., & Ocampo, L. (2021). The future of farm tourism in the Philippines: challenges, strategies and insights. Journal of Tourism futures.

[29] Yanik, R., & Samanci, T. H. (2013). Benford’s Law and a Practical Implementation in Public Sector About its Application to Accounting Data. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(1), 335-348.

Abstract

References

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