Impact of tourism revenues and inflation on economic growth: An empirical study on GUAM countries

Teymur Sarkhanov; Alig Baghirov

doi:10.31893/multirev.2024047

Keywords:

Pedroni’s long-run cointegration test

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between tourism income, consumer price index (CPI), and GDP per capita in Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova (GUAM). The study covers annual data for the period 1995-2019. The method of long-run evaluation of the Pedroni cointegration coefficient was used as a research method. The results showed that, in general, growth in tourism revenues has a positive effect on GDP per capita, while the effect of CPI is negative. Along with this, it was found that the relationship of variables in the GUAM countries is different. In Georgia, there is a statistically significant long-run effect between GDP per capita, tourism income, and CPI. It is estimated that the growth of tourism income increases GDP per capita in all countries. However, the effect of the CPI on GDP per capita in Georgia and Azerbaijan is positive, but in Moldova and Ukraine, it is negative.
References
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28. Seghir, G.M., Mostéfa, B., Abbes, S.M., Zakarya, G.Y., (2015), Tourism Spending-Economic Growth Causality in 49 Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol. 23, pp. 1613-1623
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34. Tayebi, S.K., Jabbori, A. and Babaki, R. (2009). Studying the Causal Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth. Knowledge and Development (Scientific Research), 3-17.
35. Ugur, B. (2021). The Effect of Exports on Economic Growth in Selected Emerging Market Economies: Panel Co-Integration Analysis. International Journal Of Economic Studies, 7(2), 17-29.
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

How to cite

Sarkhanov, T., & Baghirov, A. (2023). Impact of tourism revenues and inflation on economic growth: An empirical study on GUAM countries. Multidisciplinary Reviews, 7(3), 2024047. https://doi.org/10.31893/multirev.2024047

[1] Alev, N. and Erdemli, M. (2019). Elektrik Enerjisi Tüketimi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Avrupa Birliği Ülkeleri Ve Türkiye İçin Bir Analiz. ASSAM International Refereed Journal, 6, 66-85.

[2] Aydin,M. & Turan, Y. E. (2020). The influence of financial openness, trade openness, and energy intensity on ecological footprint: revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for BRICS countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(34), 43233-43245.

[3] Bogha, S. & Erkishi, K. (2019). The Relationship Between International Tourism Receipts and Economic Growth in Asia Pacific Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. The Academic Elegance , 6(11), 31-46.

[4] Breusch T.S., Pagan A.R. (1980). Review of Economic Studies. The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics, 47(1), 239–253.

[5] Balaguer, J. and Cantavella-Jordá, M. 2002. Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case. Applied Economics, 34(7): 877–884. DOI: 10.1080/00036840110058923

[6] Chudic, A. & Pesaran, A.G. . (2013). Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Models with Weakly Exogenous Regressors. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, 146, 61.

[7] Demez, S. (2021). Effects of Environmental Innovations, Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth on CO2 Emission: Panel Data Analysis for Select G-20 Countries . Anemon - Journal of Social Sciences of Mus Alparslan University, 9(4), 1007-1017.

[8] Dhungel, K. (2015). An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nepal . Science and Education Publishing, 3(2), 84-90.

[9] Dinç, H. and Rüştü, Y. (2017). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerini Belirleyen Faktörlerin Regresyon Analizi . Researcher: Social Sciences Studies, 5 (4), 351-368.

[10] Dinç, H., & Rüştü, Y. (2017). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerini Belirleyen Faktörlerin Regresyon Analizi. Researcher: Social Sciences Studies, 5 (4), 351-368.

[11] Dural, F. and Sarioğlu, S.E. (2020). Kredi Temerrüt Swaplari ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Karşilaştirmali Bir Analiz . Uludağ Journal of Economy and Society, 39(2), 87-118.

[12] Dural, F., & Sarıoğlu, S. E. (2020). Kredi Temerrüt Swaplari ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Karşilaştirmali Bir Analiz. Uludağ Journal of Economy and Society, 39(2), 87-118.

[13] Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J.P. and Westerlund, J. . (2016). Error Correction Testing In Panels With Common Stochastic Trends . Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 31(2), 982-1004.

[14] Gövdeli, T. and Direkci, T. B. (2017). The Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth: OECD Countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(4), 104-113.

[15] Huseynli, N. (2022). Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Tourism Revenues, Inflation and Economic Growth: The Case of Morocco and South Africa. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 11(1):135-146. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46222/ajhtl.19770720.216

[16] Kiliç, E., Yavuz, E., Pazarci, S. and Umur A. (2021). Analysis of the Effect of Energy Consumption on Current Account Deficit Using Panel Data: Evidence from the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, 8(2), 277-291.

[17] Köksel, B. and Yilmaz, H. (2021). The relation between human capital and economic growth: a study on groups of the countries which have different incomes. Journal of Life Economics, 8(2), 157-171.

[18] Lanza, A., Markandya, A., Pigliaru, F. Alessandro Lanza, Anil and Francesco Pigliaru, (2005), the Economics of Tourism and Sustainable Development. https://www.elgaronline.com/display/9781845424015.xml

[19] Manzoor, F., Wei, L, Asif, M., Zia ul Haq, M., Rehman, H. (2019) The Contribution of Sustainable Tourism to Economic Growth and Employment in Pakistan. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 16(19), https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16193785

[20] Organization, U.-U. N. (2022b). Sustaınable development. https://www.unwto.org/sustainable-development.

[21] Özcan, C. (2015), Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirinin Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi, Çukurova WUniversity Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 24(1), 203-220.

[22] Pablo-Romero M.P., Molina J.A., (2013), Tourism and economic growth: A review of empirical literature, Tourism Management Perspectives, Vol. 8, pp. 28-41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2013.05.006

[23] Pedroni, P. (2001). Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels. Review of Economics and statistics, 83(4), 727-731.

[24] Pesaran, M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229; IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240.

[25] Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test In The Presence Of Cross‐Section Dependence . Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.

[26] Pesaran, M.H & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93.

[27] Salihova, S. and Akbulaev, N. (2016). Analysis Between The Tourism Sector and Economic Growth in Azerbaijan. International Journal of Advanced Research , 4(6), 698-704.

[28] Seghir, G.M., Mostéfa, B., Abbes, S.M., Zakarya, G.Y., (2015), Tourism Spending-Economic Growth Causality in 49 Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol. 23, pp. 1613-1623

[29] Selamzade, F. (2020). Measurement of the efficiency of Azerbaijan region hotel organization: Window Analysis and Malmquist Index. Journal of Economic Sciences: Theory & Practice, 77(1), 31-50.

[30] Sevinc, A. (2020). Heterojen Birimler ArasıKorelasyonlu Dinamik Panel Veri Modelleri: Oecd Ülkelerinde Enerji Talebinin Modellenmesi. T.C. İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Ekonometri Anabilim Dalı Yüksek Lisans Tezi, 92-93.

[31] Swamy, P. (1970). Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model Econometrica . Journal of The Econometric Society , 38(2), 311-323.

[32] Tatoglu, F. Y. (2020). İleri Panel Veri Analizi . Beta Yayım, (4 b.), 205-207.

[33] Tatoğlu Yerdelen, F. (2017). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi (Vol. 3). İstanbul: (Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım A.Ş.

[34] Tayebi, S.K., Jabbori, A. and Babaki, R. (2009). Studying the Causal Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth. Knowledge and Development (Scientific Research), 3-17.

[35] Ugur, B. (2021). The Effect of Exports on Economic Growth in Selected Emerging Market Economies: Panel Co-Integration Analysis. International Journal Of Economic Studies, 7(2), 17-29.

[36] UNWTO. (2020, 01 20). International Tourism Growth Continues. Retrieved 04 12, 2022, from World Tourism: https://www.unwto.org/internationaltourism-

[37] UNWTO, U. N. (2022). Internatıonal Tourism Consolidates Strong Recovery Amidst Growıng Challenges. https://www.unwto.org/news/international-tourism-consolidates-strong-recovery-admidst-growing-challenges.

Abstract

References

How to cite